Research on quantitative analysis and evaluation method of complex safety mission for spacecrafts

The safety of spacecraft and astronauts is critically compromised by the complexities of aerospace missions, which include multiple products (fault) interactions, human-machine couplings, and temporal couplings among other hazardous events. Traditional safety analysis and evaluation methods for aerospace products have proven inadequate in addressing these complex mission requirements. Utilizing the probability risk evaluation method, this paper develops a dynamic safety analysis model based on the flight event chain, and it establishes a quantitative analysis and evaluation approach for complex safety missions. This method is applied to the fire response mission at the China Space Station as a case study. The application results demonstrate that the dynamic safety quantitative analysis and evaluation method can effectively quantify the probability of hazardous events, dynamically reflect the state of the aircraft system, accurately identify vulnerabilities, and contribute to ensuring the development of quality and safety standards of aerospace models.