Reliability assessment of unmanned aircraft combat effectiveness based on improved ADC analysis method

To evaluate the effectiveness and reliability of ground attack missions of combat UAVs, this paper ad opts an improved ADC method, distinct from the traditional ADC approach that relies on a vague and complex capability index C. The innovation in this study involves method enhancement and model reconstruction, resulting in a redefined capability matrix C. To validate the feasibility of the improved model, three typical combat UAVs—MQ-9B, XQ-5, and XQ-58—are selected for assessment. By integrating the combat process and analyzing evaluation indices, the effectiveness evaluation index system and corresponding capability expression formula are established. Employing the hierarchical analysis method, weight coefficients are assigned t o each capability indicator, and the effectiveness assessment results of each UAV are synthesized to verify the method's feasibility. The assessment reveals that the X-47B exhibits high operational effectiveness reliability in ground attack missions (0.7194), whereas the MQ-9 (0.6351) and XQ-58 (0.5174) demonstrate areas for improvement in electronic countermeasures and ground attack capabilities. The improved ADC model presented in this paper can be utilized for the effectiveness evaluation and index analysis of various combat UAVs, providing theoretical support for the research, development, and enhancement of UAV equipment. Furthermore, the method of constructing corresponding expressions for each capability index C can be applied to the effectiveness evaluation of other weapons, enabling a more comprehensive parameter of weapon effectiveness to be obtained .