Analysing the impact of energy price increases on the vulnerable using the fuel poverty index: a case study of Kobe, Japan

Abstract The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have significantly increased global energy prices, resulting in higher household burdens for citizens. This study uses fuel poverty indicators to determine household vulnerability to increase in energy price in Japan. A web questionnaire was conducted asking about household income and fuel bills in 2021 and 2022, using Kobe City, Japan, as a case study. As the result, the percentage of fuel-poor households in 2022 was 5.39%, an increase of 0.23% over 2021. This suggests that fuel-poor households are increasing in response to increasing energy prices. The 2022 fuel poverty rate for elderly households was 1.48%, and it was 3.91% for households other than the elderly. Analysis result regarding the characteristics of households determined to be fuel-poor indicated that single-parent households were more likely to fall into fuel poverty than average households. A model combining binomial logistic regression and multiple regression analyses was derived to measure the effect of fuel poverty measures based on the questionnaire survey results. The study results of measures to reduce the time spent using climatization equipment during the daytime in summer by implementing energy sharing showed that all households and single-parent households could move out of fuel poverty. However, elderly households could not move out of fuel poverty, and an additional condition for breaking out of fuel poverty was an increase in the annual household income of elderly households by 0.2 million JPY (Japanese Yen).