Climate change multi-risk assessment for mango cultivation in Sicily, Italy, by using Bayesian Network

Ensuring food security poses a significant challenge for organizations and consultant companies
\ninvolved in the agriculture industry or responsible for food programs. This challenge is
\nparticularly relevant in Sicily, Italy, which has a semi-tropical climate. Given the favorable
\nweather conditions for mango cultivation and other tropical crops, it becomes crucial to consider
\nmeasures for safeguarding against potential climate change impacts in the future. Climate
\nchange is expected to bring changes and increased risks in terms of temperature, extreme
\nevents, soil salinity, and irregular rainfall. Amidst this looming threat, there is a growing demand
\nfor a fresh approach and supportive tools to manage risks and mitigate potential damages in
\npolicy-making and decision-making circles. In this study, we employ a robust method known as
\nBayesian Network (BN) to effectively capture and model multiple risks under various future
\nscenarios. By exploring 'what-if' situations, such as the maximum levels of climate-related
\nvariables, the projected BN model is trained and validated using spatially-resolved data from the
\nMessina region in Sicily. This approach enables us to understand the dynamic variations in localscale
\ntemperature and precipitation, as well as the underlying driving forces, within the
\ntimeframe of 2009-2022. The outputs of the Bayesian Network aid in predicting future trends
\nin temperature and precipitation levels, thereby supporting the prioritization of mango cultivation and conservation efforts. In general, the findings derived from the BN analysis
\nprovide valuable support for disaster risk management and mitigation strategies in the face of
\nclimate change and extreme events. This tool can further enhance decision-making processes
\nby integrating the spatial results of the developed model into a user-friendly interface such as
\nGeographic Information System (GIS), thereby assisting policymakers and decision-makers in
\nprioritizing Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation plans.