Heart Failure: Machine Learning Prediction Within a 5-Year Framework

Heart failure (HF) is a complex syndrome that is affected by many factors and causes. It is crucial to early recognize the disease subtypes and the unidentified clinical pathways that give rise to it. Machine learning (ML) is the tool that assist to deal with these challenges and improve the prediction of HF. In this work, the HF risk prediction was implemented by employed ML classifiers, such as Random Forest (RF), Extreme Grading Boosting (XGBoost) and Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM). We utilized the data from the German epidemiological trial on ankle brachial index - getABI cohort, which includes 6,454 patients. The performance of classifiers was estimated by Accuracy (ACC), Sensitivity, Specificity and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in mean values for each ML classifier. The results were also interpreted using the Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach, the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Our work reveals that LGBM classifier predict the HF risk within 5 years follow-up in general population with 68 % accuracy. Moreover, the N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was identified as the most important feature for HF risk prediction.