PIG LIVESTOCK PRICE FLUCTUATIONS COMPARED TO CHICKEN, TURKEY, AND CATTLE PRICES FROM 2006–2022 IN POLAND

Aim: To present the type and level of fluctuations of pig livestock prices against chicken, turkey, and cat­tle price fluctuations from 2006 to 2022. Methods: The data consisted of a monthly time series of pig, broiler chicken, turkey, and cattle livestock prices from the Integrated Agricultural Market Information System (ZSRIR). Price fluctuations were analyzed by a time series decomposition using the Census X11 method. Results: Nominal prices of pig livestock have increased by 82% over the last seventeen years (2006–2022), while real prices have remained at the same level. Pig prices in 2006 were similar to those of turkeys, 50% higher than chickens and 45% lower than cattle. In 2022, pig prices were 20% lower than turkeys and 42% lower than cattle, while they were only 16% higher than chickens. The cyclical fluctua­tions accounted for 44%, seasonal for 42%, and random for 14% of the total annual fluctuations of pig prices. Conclusions: Pig prices fluctuated similarly to chicken prices. These two types of livestock are distinguished by a high seasonality of prices. Also, irregular changes affect pig and chicken prices more than cattle or turkey prices. From the point of view of price risk, the nature of the fluctuations is important. Regular seasonal fluctuations or long-term trends allow them to be considered in the decision-making process. On the other hand, short-term random fluctuations and medium-term changes with a large devia­tion from the expected price level represent a risk.