Reliability Evaluation Techniques for Improving the Safety and Maintenance of Aging Dams

The risk of dam failure is increasing due to environmental changes such as climate change and extreme weather events. As a result, there is growing interest in the aging of large hydraulic structures both domestically and internationally. The need for stability analysis methodologies to estimate the potential risks of these structures, along with international regulatory directions on dam safety management, has become evident. This study proposes a probabilistic safety evaluation model using Bayesian techniques. Analytical methods based on the binomial distribution and Poisson distribution were developed for aging assessment under both stationarity and nonstationarity conditions. Furthermore, the analysis was extended to include a population variability model that incorporates prior information reflecting data variability to calculate risk probabilities. The proposed aging evaluation model is expected to provide a basis for quantifying the aging of dams, thereby enabling the determination of remaining service life and the optimal timing for maintenance and repair.