Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Camellia japonica in South Korea under SSP Scenarios

Climate change presents significant challenges to the habitat suitability of Camellia japonica, a key species in East Asian ecosystems. This study evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of Camellia japonica in South Korea using species distribution models (SDMs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Eleven SDMs, including an ensemble model weighted mean (EMW), were applied to predict habitat suitability from 2010 to 2070. Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC), true skill statistics (TSS), and Kappa statistics, with EMW achieving the highest accuracy (ROC mean, 0.941), validating its reliability for integrated predictions. Bioclimatic variables, specifically mean diurnal range (BIO2) and annual precipitation (BIO12), were identified as the most influential factors driving habitat suitability. Under low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5), Camellia japonica habitats remained stable or showed slight expansion, maintaining suitability across coastline and central inland regions. Under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), Its habitat is expected to expand more rapidly and extensively across the eastern coastline and inland regions. Habitat shifts towards higher altitudes were observed across all scenarios, suggesting potential refugia in mountainous regions. This study highlights the vulnerability of Camellia japonica to climate change and the critical need for emission reduction policies to mitigate habitat loss. The findings provide actionable insights for conservation planning, emphasizing adaptive management strategies, such as preserving high-altitude refuges and restoring lowland habitats. Future research should incorporate additional ecological factors and higher-resolution datasets to refine predictions and guide sustainable biodiversity conservation efforts.