Reliability Analysis of Unstabilized Rammed Earth Under Seismic Loads using Monte Carlo Simulation

Rammed earth is experiencing a resurgence of interest due primarily to its environmental properties. This study analyzes the reliability of unstabilized rammed earth in a one-story building under seismic loads, an aspect never addressed in previous research, focusing on out-of-plane bending moments according to the Moroccan Seismic Regulation for Earth Constructions (RPCTerre 2011) using Monte Carlo simulation. Load and resistance parameters were considered dom variables, with additional parameters varying. A Python code was developed for the simulations. The results provide recommendations on wall dimensions and minimum compressive strength for different seismic zones. These recommendations were compared to existing guidelines with seismic provisions, revealing some commonalities. However, the comparison also highlights suboptimal thickness values for low and low seismicity zones and insufficient compressive strength recommendations. The study concludes that higher seismicity levels and wider walls require greater minimum thicknesses. This study addresses a crucial gap in the literature by offering a probabilistic analysis of rammed earth structures under seismic loads, providing insights to enhance design guidelines and improve the safety and sustainability of earth construction in seismic regions.