A predictive model for evaluating the effectiveness of the pension system of the Russian Federation

The construction and development of the pension system is one of the indicators of the socio-economic development of the state and the welfare of society. The article presents the results of the analysis of demographic, macroeconomic, social, institutional and labor market factors affecting the achievement of the goals of the pension system of the Russian Federation. As a result of the assessment of the significance of these factors, those that have the greatest impact on the state of the country’s pension system have been identified. The aim of the work was to develop a predictive model that allows us to determine the value of the replacement coefficient as one of the main benchmarks in the development of the pension system. The construction of the model became possible thanks to the use of correlation and regression analysis, which was based on demographic factors and labor market factors as significant independent variables. The dynamics of the development of the factors selected as independent variables and the dynamics of the development of the substitution coefficient as a dependent variable are analyzed; The variables that have the greatest impact on the replacement coefficient have been identified, and their justification has been made. The conclusion about the reliability of the constructed model is based on the calculation of a simple and adjusted coefficient of determination, F-statistics, average standard error, and residue analysis. The predicted value of the substitution coefficient is calculated using the constructed model. Competent operation of the considered factors will contribute to the development of the country’s pension system and the realization of citizens’ rights in the field of pension provision, and the introduction of the model into the activities of scientists and practical economists will allow us to develop a forecast value of the replacement coefficient as one of the main indicators of the effectiveness of the Russian pension system.