Supply-disposition storage of fresh fruits and vegetables and food loss in the Canadian supply chain

• There is an increasing trend of total food loss in Canada from 2000 to 2022. • There are 25.9% more vegetable waste than fruit waste at the storage stage. • Supply, imports, and domestic disappearance correlate strongly to food loss. • Imports and exports influence fruit and vegetable wastes in both prediction models. Analyzing transportation and storage inefficiencies at the initial stages of the food supply chain is crucial for minimizing early-stage losses and enhancing food lifecycle efficiency. However, most food system studies,focused on retail and consumer stages. This study delves into the intricate dynamics of fresh fruit and vegetable waste generation at the supply-disposition storage stage, aiming to identify distinct waste generation patterns and predict food loss in Canada using regression analysis. Total food waste generation for 64 fresh fruits and vegetables exhibited a notable increase over a 22-year study period from 2000 to 2022, and fresh vegetables consistently surpassed fresh fruits in average waste generation by 25.9 %. Despite a higher per capita waste generation for fresh vegetables (1.26 kg∙cap -1 ∙year −1 ), the steeper growth rate in fruit waste emphasizes the need for nuanced strategies for each category at the supply-disposition storage. The waste generation showed a positive linear relationship with supply, imports, and domestic disappearance in the food supply chain (R 2 = 0.80 to 0.99, p < 0.0001), denoting a significant potential impact of supply-disposition parameters on individual waste generation. Two distinct regression models were developed to forecast fresh fruits and vegetables waste generation, and both demonstrated high predictability (0.924 ≤ R 2 ≤ 0.975) and low RMSE values (1.571 ≤ RMSE ≤ 3.318). Imports and exports appear crucial to minimize food loss at supply and disposition storage. The proposed analytical approach can be beneficial elsewhere to enhance fresh food supply inventory management and minimize food loss at a global level.