Two-dimensional soft balancing in central Asia and the emerging regional order

Abstract The international system is experiencing economic and geopolitical power shifts, requiring scholars to develop a more informed understanding of emerging regional orders. This article examines regional balancing in central Asia, which has gained significantly in strategic importance following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It is one of the first attempts in the International Relations (IR) literature to analyse multiple levels of balancing, examining soft balancing at both great and secondary powers levels. The article has two goals: 1) to examine the strategies available to both secondary and great powers in central Asia; and 2) to contribute to IR theory by exploring the connections between soft balancing at two dimensions and discussing the implications for the emerging central Asian regional order. While great powers pursue soft balancing through international institutions, secondary powers exercise soft balancing through limited alignments, institutional balancing, strategic non-cooperation, ‘cheap-talk’ diplomacy, costly signalling and legitimacy denial. Despite the commonalities between soft balancing behaviour at both levels, this article shows the differences in motivations across different levels. Whereas secondary powers use soft balancing mostly for defensive purposes—to balance against perceived threats— great powers use it more proactively, to establish or preserve regional spheres of influence.