Analysis of the Characteristics of Jeonse Loan Guarantee Defaults in the Seoul Metropolitan Area

Since 2020, the number of Jeonse guarantee default has increased rapidly along with the housing market recession. In this study, we analyzed the regional household characteristics regarding Jeonse guarantee default in each submarket of the metropolitan area, focusing on Seoul and Incheon, and presented measures and implications for the management of Jeonse guarantee default. To this end, we collected domestic guarantee agency Jeonse guarantee data and household characteristic data from the National Statistical Portal and analyzed them using a multiple regression analysis model. As a result of the analysis, the dependent variable, ‘default number ratio’, was significantly affected by the household characteristics of ‘crude divorce rate’, ‘household number ratio (4 or more generations)’, and ‘household number of 100,000 or more’ with positive (+) effects, and the ‘number of guarantees per household’ variable was significantly affected with negative (-) effects. In terms of regional characteristics, the ‘Seoul’ regional variable was significantly affected with positive (+) effects, and the ‘Incheon’ regional variable was significantly affected with negative (-) effects. Based on the analysis results, policy suggestions were made to reduce Jeonse guarantee default and to provide reference for the government's housing support policy, such as the need to understand the borrower's household characteristics in the Jeonse loan and guarantee assessment process and to strengthen financial education for those vulnerable to real estate finance.