Assessment of extinction risk of the endemic plant Coreanomecon hylomeconoides by species distribution modeling and climate change scenarios

Climate change poses a significant threat to the survival of endemic plants that depend on narrow geographical ranges and specific environmental conditions. This study developed an ensemble model using six algorithms, applying climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) based on the habitat data (109 sites) of Coreanomecon hylomeconoides (Hereafter referred to as Coreanomecon), a plant endemic to the Korean Peninsula, and evaluated changes in geography, climate change sensitivity, and niche overlap. The analysis showed that the current geographical center of Coreanomecon is in the southern temperate vegetation climate zone (Jeonnam and Gyeongnam provinces). The final period of the climate change scenarios (2071-2100) predicted a rapid reduction in the range of Coreanomecon, except for high-altitude mountain areas (–94.3% in SSP1-2.6, –99.9% in SSP3-7.0, and –100.0% in SSP5-8.5). In particular, under SSP5-8.5, the potential habitat and niche overlap could be eliminated. Coreanomecon, a southern plant, is highly vulnerable to climate change, necessitating targeted in-situ conservation, including the protection of highelevation refugia and the consideration of assisted migration.