Parameters and environmental consequences of catastrophic fires in Ukraine: modeling, quantitative estimates

Climatic conditions and the intensification of hostilities in the east of Ukraine in 2024 (August and September) led to the burning of large areas of forests and grasslands. A quantitative assessment of their consequences is necessary. Methods. System analysis, multifactorial analysis, mathematical modeling. Purpose. Calculation of the main parameters of fires in the ecosystems of Ukraine, which took place in the summer-autumn of 2024, and assessment of their ecological consequences. The results. The main energy parameters of forest and grass fires caused by the summer heat and military operations in Ukraine in 2024 were calculated. In late August - early September, virtually the entire east of Ukraine was burning. A total of about 43,000 hectares were engulfed in flames in Ukraine. About 500 kt of wood and 350 kt of grass burned. Emissions of smoke, soot, and nitrogen oxides exceeded the background values ​​of the masses of these substances many times over. The injection of polyaromatic hydrocarbons exceeded the background values ​​by 570, PM 2.5 microparticles by 14 times, and the power of acoustic radiation by 30 times. CO, SOx emissions did not exceed several tens of percent. The spread of fires in ecosystems, in addition to military operations, was facilitated by high air temperature, lack of rain and wind. Conclusions. Calculations and mathematical modeling showed that the consequences of the burning of forests and grasslands in Ukraine in 2024 were catastrophic. It is substantiated that most of the fires were caused by military actions on the territory of Ukraine. The ecological situation became significantly more complicated under the influence of a dust storm that came from Kazakhstan and Central Asia. The short-term and long-term environmental consequences are very significant.