A Study on Improvements for Prediction of Typhoon-induced Storm-surge and Wave in the Southern Coast of Korea

Yuk, J.-H., 2024. A study on improvements for prediction of typhoon-induced storm-surge and wave in the southern coast of Korea. In: Phillips, M.R.; Al-Naemi, S., and Duarte, C.M. (eds.), Coastlines under Global Change: Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2024 (Doha, Qatar). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 113, pp. 695-699. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. The southern coast of Korea has suffered a lot of damage due to typhoons. Because the likelihood of super typhoons occurring is expected to increase due to global warming, it is necessary to prepare for typhoons. Accurate predictions of not only typhoons but also storm-surges and high waves caused by typhoons are important. This study aims to present a simple, quick, and accurate way to predict storm-surges and waves using the symmetric and asymmetric parametric vortex models based on typhoon information such as typhoon location, central pressure, and typhoon radius. This study investigated which one had better prediction performance when the symmetrical typhoon and asymmetrical typhoon were set. Among the recent typhoons that caused great damage to the southern coast, including the major city, Busan, Sanba (201216), Chaba (201618), Kong-rey (201825), Maysak (202009), and Haishen (202010) was selected as a typhoon simulation case. For typhoon information, the best track of JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), which provides typhoon radius information for each of the four quadrants, was used. Quadrant typhoon radius information was included only in the best tracks after 2006, so typhoons that occurred after 2006 were selected. The fully coupled tide-surge-wave model; Advanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) was used. As a result of comparing the simulated and observed storm-surges and waves at major observation stations on the southern coast of Korea, the asymmetric vortex simulation tended to predict the overall storm-surges and waves to be larger than the symmetric vortex model and to predict closer to the observations. Although this study has limitations in being unable to investigate many typhoons due to the absence of asymmetric information about typhoons, there is a need to consider asymmetric typhoon vortex in order to more accurately predict the storm-surges and waves. When a typhoon occurs, a typhoon warning is issued. At this time, this study proposes a way to simply, quickly, and accurately predict storm-surges and waves using typhoon warning data without performing a time-consuming weather prediction model.