THE CONCEPT OF EXISTENTIAL RISKS AND THE POSSIBILITIES OF THEIR ASSESSMENT IN THE LIGHT OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PARADIGMS

The article deals with link of existential risks conception with civilization and formation conceptions of social philosophy. The authors research prerequisites and elements of the conception of existential risks in the light of ideas about social development in the works of I. Kant, K. Marx, V. Vernadsky, R. Guenon, N. Bostrom and other scientists and philosophers. On the one hand, the formation paradigm’s idea of a unified and progressive development of society is especially important for the concept of existential risks. On the other hand, the civilization paradigm’s idea of multiple civilizations, each of which faces a unique set of factors and risks is important for the concept of existential risks too. A scientific understanding of existential risks requires a synthesis of the ideas of these two paradigms, taking into account Vernadsky’s argument and idea of “selection of civilizations”. The authors suggest that we need an objective integrative assessment of existential risks associated with natural factors and emerging technologies. However, well-known project “Doomsday Clock” can’t be considered an adequate way of this assessment.