Robust RNA secondary structure prediction with a mixture of deep learning and physics-based experts

A mixture-of-experts (MoE) approach has been developed to mitigate the poor out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization of deep learning (DL) models for single-sequence-based prediction of RNA secondary structure. The main idea behind this approach is to use DL models for in-distribution (ID) test sequences to leverage their superior ID performances, while relying on physics-based models for OOD sequences to ensure robust predictions. One key ingredient of the pipeline, named MoEFold2D, is automated ID/OOD detection via consensus analysis of an ensemble of DL model predictions without requiring access to training data during inference. Specifically, motivated by the clustered distribution of known RNA structures, a collection of distinct DL models is trained by iteratively leaving one cluster out. Each DL model hence serves as an expert on all but one cluster in the training data. Consequently, for an ID sequence, all but one DL model makes accurate predictions consistent with one another, while an OOD sequence yields highly inconsistent predictions among all DL models. Through consensus analysis of DL predictions, test sequences are categorized as ID or OOD. ID sequences are subsequently predicted by averaging the DL models in consensus, and OOD sequences are predicted using physics-based models. Instead of remediating generalization gaps with alternative approaches such as transfer learning and sequence alignment, MoEFold2D circumvents unpredictable ID-OOD gaps and combines the strengths of DL and physics-based models to achieve accurate ID and robust OOD predictions.