Impacts of climate change on agricultural value added in Ivory Coast

Purpose. This study assesses the impact of climate change on agricultural value added through temperature and rainfall variability. The study uses annual data for 1992–2022. Results. The results show that, in the short term, regular rainfall increases agricultural yields and boosts agricultural added value. However, even if temperature changes vary in smaller proportions than rainfall variability, they still lead to production deficits. Over the long term, the study predicts a positive relationship between temperature and agricultural value added. This prediction reveals the positive effects of the implications of economic policies in terms of intelligent agriculture. Over the same period, precipitation has a significant negative value. In fact, the onset of heavy rainfall affects crop productivity and yields, hence its negative impact on agricultural value added. Scientific novelty. Previous studies on the impact of climate change on agricultural value added have mainly focused on the effects of rainfall and temperature variability on agricultural yields and the share of agricultural value added in the Ivory Coast’s GDP. However, very little empirical work has been done on the impacts of climate change on agricultural growth in Ivory Coast. This study fills this gap. It extends the existing literature on the causal relationship between climate change and agricultural development. Finally, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used to address this issue. Practical value. The information generated will be useful to a number of organisations, including: research centres, universities, governments, governmental and non-governmental organisations, to better guide the development and implementation of resilience policies and strategies in a context of environmental crisis. Finally, by knowing the existing relationship between climate change and agricultural GDP, as well as the limitations of the resilience policies, the study provides the different ways to improve the capacity for creating agricultural wealth in the climate change issue. Research on this issue is crucial to inform policy makers in developing sustainable economic policies to achieve meaningful agricultural growth in the face of climate crises.