Should we expect further acceleration of the Earth’s rotation in the coming years?

Recently, it was suggested in the literature that the difference between universal and coordinated time UT1–UTC could reach a large positive value in the coming years (Agnew 2024). This would make it necessary to introduce a negative leap second into UTC for the first time in history, which in turn will cause serious problems in time keeping and synchronization systems around the world. Based on the latest Earth’s rotation and Universal Time data published by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) and their prediction, this paper shows that the acceleration trend observed over the past four years is likely to return to slowing down soon. Therefore, fears about the possible need to introduce a negative leap second into the UTC time scale in the next few years in the light of recent observational data seem unfounded.

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Publication Details

Journal
Астрономический журнал
Published
2024-10-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31857/s0004629924100061
Primary Topic
Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Should we expect further acceleration of the Earth’s rotation in the coming years?

Zinovy Malkin
Астрономический журнал
Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
article

Should we expect further acceleration of the Earth’s rotation in the coming years?

Zinovy Malkin
article en

Abstract

Recently, it was suggested in the literature that the difference between universal and coordinated time UT1–UTC could reach a large positive value in the coming years (Agnew 2024). This would make it necessary to introduce a negative leap second into UTC for the first time in history, which in turn will cause serious problems in time keeping and synchronization systems around the world. Based on the latest Earth’s rotation and Universal Time data published by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) and their prediction, this paper shows that the acceleration trend observed over the past four years is likely to return to slowing down soon. Therefore, fears about the possible need to introduce a negative leap second into the UTC time scale in the next few years in the light of recent observational data seem unfounded.

Астрономический журналVol. 101(10)
Pulkovo Observatory (RU)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 75%
Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
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