Research on the Volume Forecast of Western Land-Sea New Corridor Trains Based on the ARIMA Model

Under the backdrop of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor as a national strategic layout, this paper proposes a forecasting method based on the seasonal ARIMA model to accurately predict the volume of logistics trains. Firstly, the paper provides an overview of the operation of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor and analyzes its key role in promoting regional economic development. Secondly, detailed data analysis is conducted by collecting and organizing the operational data of rail-sea intermodal trains, cross-border road shuttle buses, and international rail intermodal trains. Subsequently, the data is processed for stationarity, including ADF tests and differencing, to ensure the time series is stationary. Next, the ARIMA model is established and evaluated by determining the optimal model using evaluation parameters such as AIC, BIC, and fitting coefficients. Finally, the constructed model is used to forecast the number of train services, yielding the predicted number of services for each train type in 2030. The research results provide a scientific basis for the volume forecast of trains in the Western Land-Sea New Corridor and offer decision-making support for relevant departments and enterprises.