Development and testing of the toolkit of strategic planning of territorial development on the basis of an intelligent adaptive simulation model

Management of strategic development of Russian regions is a complex task, the solution of which is associated with a set of difficulties of methodological nature. In particular, there is a low quality of formed forecast assessments on the main parameters under consideration. Despite the availability of research in this area and regulatory legal framework, strategic planning documents in Russia are often not linked to each other, are repeatedly revised in the course of implementation and, ultimately, are not fully implemented. This is largely due to the fact that the available scientific potential is not fully utilized, including the development of relevant information systems. The aim of this research is to develop a decision support toolkit for strategic planning of regional development. Agent-based modeling, adaptive management, data mining and scenario modeling are used as the main research methods. In the course of the research, the concept of toolkit formation is proposed based on the construction of an intelligent adaptive simulation model (IASM), taking into account the theory of strategic planning and the ability to process heterogeneous data. The proposed structure of IASM includes four interrelated hierarchical levels – intelligent agents, macro-processes, management system and external environment. Special attention is paid to the development of a model of adaptive behavior of an intelligent agent. The proposed approach to implementation will make it possible to cover the whole range of tasks – from the analysis of input data to the development of management decisions. The software implementation of the model thus developed is carried out using the AnyLogic toolkit. The article was prepared with the financial support of the Russian Science Foundation, project No. 23-28-00871.