Deterrence, Assurance, and Countermeasures

This study examines the consequences of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 Taiwan visit and China’s military response, using survey data from 2,027 respondents in Taiwan and 4,575 in Shanghai. The visit achieved its goals: assuring Taiwan’s public and creating a deterrent effect on China’s public. In response, China’s military exercises aimed to alleviate domestic concerns about US involvement (counter-deterrence) and to undermine Taiwan’s confidence in US assurances (counter-assurance). The exercises had a slight counter-assurance effect but no significant counter-deterrence. This study highlights the complex interplay between military and non-military strategies in the Taiwan Strait’s security environment and their roles in geopolitical stability.