A Comprehensive Simulation of the Russia-Ukraine Armed Conflict: Applying the Post-War Economic Impact Simulator (PEI-Simulator)

This paper introduces a new economic simulator in the case of a war, this new economic simulator is entitled “The Post-War Economic Impact Simulator (PEI-Simulator).” The primary objective of the PEI-Simulator is to analyse wars at various stages to assess their overall socio-economic impact in both the short and long term. Additionally, it shifts away from the traditional benefit-cost analysis of war, introducing a new simulator that represents war scenarios from a more complex and dynamic perspective. The PEI-Simulator assesses the economic impacts of countries thorough the possible scenario of a partial or full war in three different stages: (i) pre-war stage; (ii) war stage; (iii) post-war stage. The analysis makes use of different indicators such as economic desgrowth from war (-δwar), war intensity (I), war losses (-Lwar), economic wear from war (Πwar), level of war tension (Twar), level of diplomatic negotiations (D), and the total economic leaking from war (Ωwar). Lastly, this research applies the PEI-Simulator to evaluate a possible full war between Russia and Ukraine.