Dependent default times with mixed hitting-time models

Abstract Mixed hitting-time models allow the analysis of competing risks through optimal stopping decisions interpreted as crossing times of latent Lévy processes with heterogeneous thresholds. In this paper, we consider a bivariate time model with dependent default, where observation times are subject to censoring and share a common latent process given by a Lévy subordinator. We establish the identifiability of the model and propose different estimators for the marginal distributions and the joint survival function. We establish their asymptotic properties and evaluate the finite-sample performance of our results through a simulation study on synthetic data, followed by an application using real data.

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Publication Details

Journal
Statistical Papers
Published
2026-06-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00362-026-01866-3
Primary Topic
Distributed systems and fault tolerance
Type
preprint
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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preprint

Dependent default times with mixed hitting-time models

Hajer Rejeb, Mikael Escobar‐Bach, Salima Helali
Statistical Papers
Distributed systems and fault tolerance
preprint

Dependent default times with mixed hitting-time models

Hajer Rejeb, Mikael Escobar‐Bach, Salima Helali
preprint en

Abstract

Abstract Mixed hitting-time models allow the analysis of competing risks through optimal stopping decisions interpreted as crossing times of latent Lévy processes with heterogeneous thresholds. In this paper, we consider a bivariate time model with dependent default, where observation times are subject to censoring and share a common latent process given by a Lévy subordinator. We establish the identifiability of the model and propose different estimators for the marginal distributions and the joint survival function. We establish their asymptotic properties and evaluate the finite-sample performance of our results through a simulation study on synthetic data, followed by an application using real data.

Statistical PapersVol. 67(4)
Université de Technologie de Compiègne (FR), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Sfax (TN), Université Paris-Est Créteil (FR), Laboratoire Angevin de Recherche en Mathématiques (FR), Laboratoire d’Analyse et de Mathématiques Appliquées (FR), Université Gustave Eiffel (FR), Université d'Angers (FR)
Openalex Percentile: Top 100%
Distributed systems and fault tolerance
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