Logistics and the Fall‒ Unpacking Civilization Collapse Through Two Lenses

The study of civilization collapse has gained significant attention since the 1980s, largely due to researchers like Joseph Tainter and Jared Diamond. Tainter explores how increasing societal complexity leads to higher management costs, ultimately causing collapse when marginal returns diminish, including in areas like logistics. In contrast, Diamond investigates various drivers of collapse, particularly environmental factors, and highlights that societies often fail when they cannot adapt their supply chains to challenges such as environmental degradation and climate crises. While Tainter views logistics as a fundamental aspect of societal complexity, Diamond includes it within his broader analysis of the causes of collapse. Despite this, it is unfortunate that the topic remains largely overlooked in supply chain management research. This paper seeks to fill that gap by demonstrating that logistical failures play a critical role in the collapse of civilizations, linking historical patterns to current vulnerabilities in modern, interconnected systems. By examining these past cases, the contribution underscores the need for resilient logistics in avoiding similar outcomes today.