Disentangling the Roles of Climate Variables in Forest Fire Occurrences in China

In the context of global warming, climate strongly affects forest fires. With long-term and strict fire prevention policies, China has become a unique test arena for comprehending the role of climatic variables in affecting forest fires. Here, using GIS spatial analysis, Pearson correlation, and geographical detector, the climate drivers of forest fires in China are revealed using the 2003–2022 active fire data from the MODIS C6 and climate products from CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the Earth’s land surface areas). The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In total, 82% of forest fires were prevalent in the southern and southwestern forest regions (SR and SWR) in China, especially in winter and spring. (2) Forest fires were mainly distributed in areas with a mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of 14~22 °C (subtropical) and 800~2000 mm (humid zone), respectively. (3) Incidences of forest fires were positively correlated with temperature, potential evapotranspiration, surface downwelling shortwave flux, and near-surface wind speed but negatively correlated with precipitation and near-surface relative humidity. (4) Temperature and potential evapotranspiration dominated the roles in determining spatial variations of China’s forest fires, while the combination of climate variables complicated the spatial variation. This paper not only provides new insights on the impact of climate drives on forest fires, but also offers helpful guidance for fire management, prevention, and forecasting.