Do New Energy Vehicles Really Reduce Carbon Emissions? -An Empirical Analysis of Panel Data from Prefecture-level Cities in China

As one of the key strategic areas to promote sustainable development, the development of new energy vehicles is crucial to alleviate environmental pressure and energy challenges. Based on an in-depth analysis of the actual use of new energy vehicles, China's electricity supply system and carbon emission mechanisms, the paper collects and collates data from the key provinces and cities for the promotion of new energy vehicles mentioned in the 2016 Notice on the "13th Five-Year" New Energy Vehicle Charging Facility Incentive Policies and Strengthening of New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application, and applies the dual The empirical analysis is carried out using the double splitting method to quantitatively assess the carbon emission impacts of the promotion of new energy vehicles, and the final conclusion is that under China's existing energy structure, the promotion of new energy vehicles will not effectively reduce carbon emissions, but rather contribute to the further growth of carbon emissions. Moreover, the paper attempts to predict that with the continuous optimisation of the energy structure, China may reach the carbon equilibrium point by 2033 through the promotion of new energy vehicles, thus truly achieving the theoretical carbon reduction effect of new energy vehicles. Therefore, the government needs to flexibly adjust the promotion strategy of new energy vehicles to adapt to the power production structure and supply and demand situation in different regions, so as to maximise the carbon emission reduction benefits of promoting new energy vehicles under the existing energy structure; at the same time, it should actively promote the policy of optimising the energy structure, so as to make the carbon emissions reach the carbon equilibrium point under the context of promoting new energy vehicles, and to truly make new energy vehicles become an effective tool for promoting carbon emission reduction. The thesis provides some practical guidance for governmental decision- making in the fields of energy structure reform, carbon emission reduction and new energy vehicle development, and has certain decision-making reference significance.