Soybean Water Monitoring and Water Demand Prediction in Arid Region Based on UAV Multispectral Data

Soil moisture content is a key factor influencing plant growth and agricultural productivity, directly impacting water uptake, nutrient absorption, and stress resistance. This study proposes a rapid, low-cost, non-destructive method for dynamically monitoring soil moisture at depths of 0–200 cm throughout the crop growth period under dryland conditions, with validation in soybean cultivation. During critical soybean growth stages, UAV multispectral data of the canopy were collected, and ground measurements were conducted for three GPS-referenced 50 cm × 50 cm plots to obtain canopy leaf water content, coverage, and soil volumetric moisture at 20 cm intervals. Ten vegetation indices were constructed from multispectral data to explore statistical relationships between vegetation indices, surface soil moisture, canopy leaf water content, and deeper soil moisture. Predictive models were developed and evaluated. Results showed that the NDVI-based nonlinear regression model achieved the best performance for leaf water content (R2 = 0.725), and a significant correlation was found between canopy leaf water content and 0–20 cm soil moisture (R2 = 0.705), enabling predictions of deeper soil moisture. Surface soil models accurately estimated 0–200 cm soil moisture distribution (R2 = 0.9995). Daily water dynamics simulations provided robust support for precision irrigation management. This study demonstrates that UAV multispectral remote sensing combined with ground sampling is a valuable tool for soybean water management, supporting precision agriculture and sustainable water resource utilization.