Predicting the Global Distribution of Nitraria L. Under Climate Change Based on Optimized MaxEnt Modeling

The genus of <i>Nitraria</i> L. are Tertiary-relict desert sand-fixing plants, which are an important forage and agricultural product, as well as an important source of medicinal and woody vegetable oil. In order to provide a theoretical basis for better protection and utilization of species in the <i>Nitraria</i> L., this study collected global distribution information within the <i>Nitraria</i> L., along with data on 29 environmental and climatic factors. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the globally suitable distribution areas for <i>Nitraria</i> L. The results showed that the mean AUC value was 0.897, the TSS average value was 0.913, and the model prediction results were excellent. UV-B seasonality (UVB-2), UV-B of the lowest month (UVB-4), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), the DEM (Digital Elevation Model), and annual precipitation (bio12) were the key variables affecting the distribution area of <i>Nitraria</i> L, with contributions of 54.4%, 11.1%, 8.3%, 7.4%, and 4.1%, respectively. The <i>Nitraria</i> L. plants are currently found mainly in Central Asia, North Africa, the neighboring Middle East, and parts of southern Australia and Siberia. In future scenarios, except for a small expansion of the 2030s scenario model <i>Nitraria</i> L., the potential suitable distribution areas showed a decreasing trend. The contraction area is mainly concentrated in South Asia, such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, North Africa, Libya, as well as in areas of low suitability in northern Australia, where there was also significant shrinkage. The areas of expansion are mainly concentrated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the Iranian plateau, and the Sahara Desert is also partly expanded. With rising Greenhouse gas concentrations, habitat fragmentation is becoming more severe. Center-of-mass migration results also suggest that the potential suitable area of <i>Nitraria</i> L. will shift northwestward in the future. This study can provide a theoretical basis for determining the scope of <i>Nitraria</i> L. habitat protection, population restoration, resource management and industrial development in local areas.