The Effect of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Human Development Index of EU Countries: An Analysis Using Machine Learning Methods

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a pivotal indicator in gauging the extent of development and living standards across countries. However, the global pandemic of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is believed to exert a deleterious influence on these indices. It is therefore important to understand the effects of the pandemic on HDI and how HDI would be shaped in a scenario without the pandemic. In this context, the HDI data for the years 1995-2019 were subjected to linear regression analysis, and the HDI values for 2020, 2021 and 2022, when the effects of the pandemic were observed, were estimated. Furthermore, the original HDI indicators were compared for these years. The study demonstrates that in the absence of the pandemic, the HDI values of the countries would continue the upward trajectory observed in previous years. Furthermore, despite the initial negative effects, the Netherlands and Portugal have reached the simulated HDI values by 2022, indicating that they have been able to overcome the significant slowdown or decline in HDI caused by the pandemic. The original HDI values of Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Sweden were only approximated by the simulated HDI values by 2022. In other EU countries, it is observed that the effects of the pandemic on HDI are long-lasting. In the analysis, Sweden is a notable exception.