Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Northwest China

Northwest China has been facing a contrast between water resource shortage and rapid economic and social development for a long time, and the enhancement of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) is of strategic significance in solving this contradiction. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation system of water resource carrying capacity is constructed to define the characteristics of Northwest China, which innovatively integrates the four major systems of water resources, economy, society, and the ecological environment. The improved TOPSIS model is applied to systematically evaluate the dynamic evolution of WRCC in the five provinces (autonomous regions) of the Northwest region from 2000 to 2022. The obstacle degree diagnosis model is used to deeply analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the main constraining factors. The study finds the following: (1) the Northwest WRCC grows slowly amidst fluctuations, with insignificant inter-regional differences, but at a much slower rate than GDP growth in the same period; (2) WRCC in the Northwest region exhibits significant regional differentiation, with Ningxia and Xinjiang maintaining steady upward trends, while Shanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai show a fluctuating upward trend; (3) the constraining factors for WRCC improvement exhibit obvious regional characteristics and time-stage characteristics, with a spatial mismatch of water resource supply and demand, and with low population and economic agglomeration being the core bottlenecks constraining WRCC improvement in the Northwest region. Based on empirical analysis, this study provides customized WRCC improvement strategies for each province (autonomous region), providing scientific decision-making support for the sustainable use of water resources in the Northwest region.