A WIDE PERSPECTIVE INVESTIGATION OF THE ROLE OF SUSTAINABLE FUELS IN DECARBONIZING TRANSPORT AND COMPARISON WITH FOSSIL FUELS

The transition to sustainable fuels has become essential in international initiatives to mitigate climate change and attain carbon neutrality. Sustainable fuels—especially bioenergy and low-emission hydrogen—are vital for decarbonizing high-emission sectors like industry, transportation, and aviation. By offering alternatives where direct electrification and energy efficiency fall short, these fuels enhance energy security and diversification. Under the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) 2050 scenario, need for low-emission fuels like biofuels, and hydrogen is expected to double by 2030 and triple by 2050, highlighting their significance in meeting long-term climate goals. A comparative analysis reveals that biofuels provide a unique advantage over intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind, offering continuous energy production capability. In 2023, biofuel demand reached 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) and is projected to rise to 3.2 mboe/d by 2035 and 4.1 mboe/d by 2050, driven partly by the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Although biofuels have a higher carbon footprint than cleaner options like solar and wind, they maintain compatibility with existing fossil fuel infrastructure, making them particularly suitable for the transportation sector. Consequently, the need for fossil fuels is expected to decrease significantly by 2050, with oil demand falling from 78.3 mboe/d in 2030 to 23 mboe/d, while biofuels and hydrogen-based fuels experience a 72% increase over the same period. This study evaluates the current roles, advantages, and disadvantages of sustainable fuels in the energy transition, underscoring the demand for supportive regulatory frameworks, infrastructure investment, and sustainability standards to encourage widespread adoption. Sustainable fuels offer a critical opportunity to reduce carbon emissions in hard-to-decarbonize sectors, playing a pivotal role in transitioning toward a low-carbon global economy.