Intergenerational Wealth Dynamics in an Aging Society: A Panel Data Analysis of Economic Inequality across Vietnamese Provinces

This study investigates the relationship between population aging and economic inequality in Vietnam, utilizing a comprehensive provincial panel dataset spanning from 2010 to 2022 across all 63 provinces. Through dynamic panel estimation techniques and heterogeneity analysis, we examine both the direct effects of aging on inequality and the various mechanisms through which this relationship operates across different regional and socioeconomic contexts within Vietnam. Our findings reveal a significant positive relationship between aging and inequality, with a one percentage point increase in the elderly dependency ratio associated with a 0.058 point increase in the Gini coefficient. The impact demonstrates substantial regional heterogeneity, with stronger effects observed in more developed provinces and urban areas such as Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. During this crucial period of Vietnam's demographic transition, temporal analysis indicates that aging effects persist for approximately three years, with an 18-month adjustment half-life, suggesting significant cumulative impacts over time. The moderating effect of social security coverage, while present, appears modest in mitigating aging-induced inequality. This research contributes to the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive analysis of dynamic aging-inequality relationships in Vietnam during a period of rapid socioeconomic transformation, introducing novel evidence on provincial heterogeneities, and establishing a temporal framework for understanding adjustment processes. These findings have important implications for policy design, suggesting the need for regionally targeted interventions and forward-looking policy approaches that account for cumulative demographic effects in Vietnam's rapidly aging society.