Evaluation of Ecological Carrying Capacity in Western Jilin Province from the Perspective of “Production–Living–Ecological Spaces” Coupling Coordination

Under the combined influences of climate change and human activities, the western Jilin (WJ) Province, as a typical ecologically fragile area, has experienced ecological degradation and resource depletion. Therefore, it is urgently needed to assess its ecological carrying capacity (ECC) to provide scientific support for regional ecological protection and resource management. This study integrated the “Pressure-State-Response” (P-S-R) model with the “production, living, and ecological spaces” (PLES) conceptual model to construct a comprehensive evaluation indicator system for ECC. The indicator weights were calculated using a Bayesian BWM-CRITIC-CWDF linear combination method, and the spatial–temporal distribution of ECC was then assessed using an improved TOPSIS and gray relational analysis (GRA). This evaluation model overcomes the limitations of traditional methods in weight allocation, indicator correlation, and non-linear effects, providing a more accurate, reliable, and objective assessment of ECC. Furthermore, a bivariate spatial autocorrelation model was applied to reveal the interaction between the “coupling coordination degree (CCD) of PLES” and ECC. The results indicate that the ECC value was divided into a period of decline (2000–2010) and a period of growth (2010–2020); spatially, the ECC level transitioned from a high-west, low-east to a high-east, low-west pattern. This change was primarily driven by factors such as fertilizer usage, per capita GDP, and per capita output. The “CCD of PLES” and ECC indicated positive spatial correlation, primarily forming “high-high” and “high-low” clusters. This study provides a reliable evaluation index system and an evaluation model for evaluating ECC in WJ. The findings provide a theoretical foundation for the region’s sustainable development and offer valuable insights for ecological carrying capacity research.