The influence of the railway industry on transport CO ₂ emissions under low–carbon background

As a low-carbon transport mode, the railway has a significant influence on transport CO 2 emissions. This paper abstracts and quantifies the influence from a new perspective to explore the influence of the railway industry on transport CO 2 emissions. Considering various influencing factors systematically, we establish the transport CO 2 emissions correlation (TCEC) network based on the theory of complex networks. The superimposed influence diffusion (SID) model proposed in this paper can predict the future trend of the transport CO 2 emissions through network evolution, which is different from traditional methods. The railway-related scenarios are designed to analyze the influence spread and the possibility of Beijing peaking the transport CO 2 emissions before 2035. The research results show that the transport CO 2 emissions reach a peak and then slowly decrease under four scenarios, while under other scenarios, the transport CO 2 emissions keep growing unable to achieve a peak. The proposed methods can be extended to other areas, and the research findings have certain reference for making policies.