Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Carbon Emissions under the Dual-Carbon Goal: Evidence from Nine Regions in the Yellow River basin of China

With the increasing global concern about climate change and environmental protection, reducing carbon emissions has become an important issue of sustainable development. Digital inclusive finance (DIF), as a powerful instrument to promote economic reform and carbon emission reduction, provides substantial support for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. Against the backdrop of China’s goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (referred to as “dual carbon”), the panel data of nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River basin (YRB) from 2011–2020 were analyzed in this paper to reveal the role of DIF in carbon emissions and the underlying reasons behind it. A Two-way Fixed Effect (TWFE) model was used, and relevant heterogeneity analysis and robustness tests were carried out. The results show that DIF significantly promotes carbon emission reduction. After several rounds of robustness tests, this conclusion is still valid, which fully proves the result’s reliability. The analysis of DIF sub-dimension indices shows that coverage breadth, usage depth, and digitization degree have different degrees of impact on curbing carbon emissions. In addition, the differences in geographical location and economic development level among different regions significantly affect the carbon reduction effects of DIF. In middle-lower reaches of YRB and regions with higher economic development level, the carbon reduction effects of DIF are particularly significant. Mechanism analysis revealed different pathways of DIF supporting carbon reduction. DIF significantly reduces carbon emissions by promoting technical innovation level and optimizing energy structure. The existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve was also confirmed. Furthermore, government intervention degree and environmental regulation intensity have varying degrees of inhibitory effects on carbon emissions, while industrial structure level has a promotional effect on carbon emissions. This study has important reference value for comprehensively assessing the environmental impact of DIF and formulating relevant policies. It also provides practical policy insights for designing and implementing strategies to promote DIF development and drive corporate carbon reduction.