Temporal Evolution of Environmental Impact Arising from Municipal Solid Waste Treatment Systems: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China

It is important to assess the temporal evolution of environmental impacts arising from municipal solid waste (MSW) under different policies, especially in China. However, most previous research has primarily focused on the effects of policies at the system management level, neglecting their influence on technical-level implementation, which compromises the accuracy of policy effect simulations. This study developed a comprehensive simulation model that integrates a life cycle assessment (LCA) and a dynamic simulation model of a complex system to enhance the accuracy of environmental impact simulations of the MSW management system in Guangzhou. The model considers how different measures affect changes in the physical composition of MSW at the technical level and their subsequent impact on MSW generation at the system level. The study employed five scenarios to simulate the impacts of different strategies on MSW generation levels and environmental consequences of MSW treatment systems, encompassing the entire process of generation, collection, and disposal. LCA results simulate a 24.14% reduction in the unit environmental impact of incineration technology due to MSW classification, which alters the material composition, decreases water content, and enhances the caloric value. The comprehensive simulation model’s results illustrate that implementing measures such as MSW charging, economic control, and population control can effectively reduce overall MSW by 31.35%. In terms of environmental impact, Guangzhou reached its peak in 2018 but experienced a subsequent decline due to the continuous implementation of MSW classification policies. Among the various strategies considered, the scenario focusing on technological improvement exhibited the most significant reduction in overall environmental impact by enhancing power generation efficiency and minimizing pollution emissions, followed by metering and charging policies utilizing economic levers. Finally, recommendations on the coupling effect of policies, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and incineration residue recycling are proposed. The comprehensive simulation model can provide scientific theoretical support to build a sustainable MSW treatment system for Guangzhou and other cities worldwide.