Current Trends in Global Nuclear Arms Race and its Implications for South Asia

The global nuclear order is undergoing significant shifts, driven primarily by strategic modernisation, deteriorating arms control frameworks, the potential resumption of nuclear testing, and the growing importance of nuclear weapons in national security policies. Major Powers, the US, Russia, and China, are notably engaged in intense competition and simultaneously investing heavily in their nuclear modernisation programs. The breakdown of bilateral arms control agreements, such as the New START and INF treaty, have increased uncertainties regarding the future of arms control. Furthermore, the debate on potential resumption of nuclear testing signals a weakening commitment to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Moreover, nuclear weapons are regaining prominence, with states increasingly viewing them as vital to their national security. This trend is evident not only in global power dynamics but also in regional contexts, such as South Asia, where India and Pakistan are advancing their nuclear capabilities, influenced by the broader strategic competition. Consequently, nuclear weapons are becoming central to both deterrence and compellence strategies, complicating efforts to achieve strategic balance or pursue arms control.