A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating Multi-Event Resilience in Oil Pipeline Incidents

This study introduces a quantitative approach to evaluating the resilience of oil pipeline systems against various natural and physical disruptions. Resilience is increasingly essential in critical infrastructure to ensure continuous operations and minimize disruption impacts. However, existing quantitative methods often need specific time-dependent data, making measuring resilience in pipeline infrastructure challenging. To address this gap, this paper proposed a comprehensive framework by integrating the existing incident database with key features of assessing failure probabilities based on historical events and developing multi-event resilience indicators based on system performance under various disruptions. The methodology employs event tree analysis to quantify the probabilities of multiple failure scenarios and their impact on pipeline operations and recovery efforts. The practical application of the proposed approach was demonstrated using real-world oil pipeline incident data from across the United States, covering the period from 2010 to 2022. The focus was on multiple event scenarios involving pipeline disruptions, followed by shutdowns, examining how these events collectively impact pipeline resilience. The results indicate that corrosion failure, equipment failure, and natural hazard damage significantly impact oil pipeline resilience. Corrosion and equipment failures affect resilience primarily due to their frequency, while natural hazard damage, despite its lower occurrence rate, is more unpredictable and often requires more frequent shutdowns. Understanding these failure causes and their impacts is essential for enhancing the resilience and sustainable operation of oil pipeline systems.