Sustaining Carbon Storage: An Analysis of Land Use and Conservation Strategies in China’s Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, a vital agricultural area in China with a significant amount of arable land, plays a pivotal role in influencing grain production, ecological carbon cycles, and global climate change through its shifts in land use. Within this research, we have employed the ArcGIS tool and the In-VEST-Geodetector-PLUS methodology to scrutinize the shifts in carbon storage from the year 2000 to 2020, determine the pivotal influences behind these shifts, and anticipate the projected carbon storage for 2030. Although there has been a slight increase in forested areas as a result of environmental policies, the conversion of cropland to impervious surfaces due to urbanization has led to a persistent decrease in carbon storage, with a cumulative loss of 272.79 million metric tons over the two decades. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Night-Time Lights (NTL), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Population (POP) are critical factors impacting carbon storage, reflecting the intricate connection between socio-economic development and natural ecosystems. The multi-scenario simulations for 2030 suggest that the least reduction in carbon storage would occur under the scenario of protecting arable land, while the most significant decrease would be under the urban expansion scenario, highlighting the impact of urbanization. The study’s results emphasize the critical need to harmonize agricultural land conservation with economic progress for the enduring growth of the Huang-Huai-Hai region.