Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Obstacle Factors of the Disaster Resilience in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration, China

With the accelerating process of global urbanization, the disaster risks faced by urban agglomerations are becoming more and more complex and diversified, and strengthening the research of disaster resilience is crucial to achieving the sustainable economic and social development of urban agglomerations. Taking 30 cities in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) between 2012 and 2022 as research objects, this paper innovatively fixed a common disaster resilience assessment index system; then, the disaster resilience index was calculated and significance was detected by a paired t-test. Finally, the spatial evolution and obstacle factors of CPUA were explored by Moran’s I and SDM Model. The results show that the disaster resilience of CPUA in 2012–2022 shows significant growth (p < 0.01), and the growth rate in the early period is greater than that in the late period. In terms of spatial distribution, the disaster resilience showed a pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast, which obviously evolved over time, presenting obvious regional asynchrony and incoherence. The spatial heterogeneity of disaster resilience was strong, and the cities with significant agglomeration account for only 30%, mainly belonging to the L-L agglomeration type. The spatial spillover effects of resistance, recovery, and adaptability were significant (p < 0.01), among which the resistance dimension was the main obstacle factor. This study contributes to the existing literature in two ways. It explores the significance of temporal evolution as well as the spillover effect of spatial evolution, which were seldom seen. The research results can provide a reference for the construction and governance of disaster resilience both in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration and other cities.