Provincial Sustainable Development in China from a Multidimensional Perspective: Regional Differences, Dynamic Evolution, Spatial Effects, and Convergence

Sustainable development (SD) is vital for the progress of Chinese provinces, especially in the face of emerging challenges. This study constructs an index system for SD based on five dimensions: economic, social, ecological, political, and cultural aspects, aligning with scientific connotations and contemporary requirements. We employ an improved entropy-weight-TOPSIS method to assess the SD of 30 provinces from 2012 to 2022. Our analysis explores the dynamic evolution, regional disparities, coupling coordination, long-term trends, and convergence of provincial SD. The findings include: (1) Provincial SD in China has shown consistent growth, but significant regional disparities remain, forming a gradient distribution from high to low in the order of “East-Central-Northeast-West.” (2) While both intra-regional and inter-regional SD differences have decreased over time, inter-regional disparities continue to be significant, serving as the primary source of regional differences. (3) Coupling and coordination across the five dimensions of SD have improved; however, an imbalance persists, with uncoordinated development remaining a prominent issue. (4) A clear “club convergence” phenomenon is observed, indicating that the SD of neighboring provinces influences one another. Higher SD in adjacent regions increases the likelihood of upward shifts, while lower SD tends to lead to downward shifts. (5) Evidence of both σ-convergence and β-convergence in provincial SD development suggests that SD is ultimately converging toward a stable state. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance sustainable development across China’s provinces.