Prediction of the Potential Spatial Distribution of the Vitis Vinifera Species Under Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxENT Model

The negative impacts of climate change, such as increasing competition among species, habitat loss, and spatial shifts, have a strong influence on species distribution areas. Species distribution models are an important tool for protecting species from the adverse effects of climate change and for conserving biodiversity. In this study, the spatial impact of climate change on the distribution of the Vitis Vinifera (Narince grape) species, which has a natural distribution in Turkey, was predicted using the MaxEnt model. To determine how the species’ distribution areas would be affected by climate change, the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model, developed based on the principles of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), was used. The potential distribution of the species for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 was modeled under SSP 2.45 and SSP 5.85 scenarios. The results of the study show that the predicted current distribution area of Vitis Vinifera corresponds to its present geographic distribution. Under current climate conditions, suitable areas for the species are calculated as 21.837 km², highly suitable areas as 5.169 km², and the total suitable area as 27.006 km². For the future climate change scenarios, under the SSP 2.45 scenario, the total suitable areas are predicted to be 22,877 km² for the 2041–2060 period and 24,225 km² for the 2081–2100 period. Under the SSP 5.85 scenario, the total suitable areas are estimated to be 23.908 km² for the 2041–2060 period and 22.781 km² for the 2081–2100 period. According to our findings, it has been determined that the spatial distribution of the species will change under future climate change scenarios, and its distribution in Turkey is expected to decrease.