Evolution and Future Challenges of Hydrological Elements in the Qinglongshan Irrigation Area: A Study on the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the Qinglongshan Irrigation Area Model

In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was first initialized for the Qinglongshan Irrigation Area (QLS). We aimed to assess the impacts of climate and land use (LULC) changes between 1980 and 2020 on several hydrological parameters in the QLS, including actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil water (SW), soil recharge to groundwater (PERC), surface runoff (SURQ), groundwater runoff (GWQ), and lateral runoff (LATQ). We predicted the trends in hydrological factors from 2021 to 2050. Based on the S1 scenario, the precipitation and the paddy field area decreased by 42.28 mm and 1717.65 km2, respectively; hydrological factors increased by 91.53, 104.28, 50.66, 21.86, 55.93, and 0.79 mm, respectively, in the QLS. Climate changes contributed 6.10%, −7.58%, −54.11%, 26.90%, −121.17%, and −31.66% to changes in hydrological factors, respectively; LULC changes contributed −2.19%, 3.63%, 11.61%, −2.93%, 25.89%, and 16.86%, respectively; and irrigation water volume changes contributed 96.09%, 103.95%, 142.50%, 76.03%, 195.28%, and 114.80%, respectively. Irrigation and water intake were the main factors affecting the changes in hydrological elements. This was followed by climatic changes and LULC. In natural development scenarios, the QLS is anticipated to face challenges, including increased actual ET, reduced seepage and groundwater contribution, and declining groundwater levels.