Economic effects of livestock disease burden in Ethiopia: A computable general equilibrium analysis

The burden of animal disease is widespread globally and is especially severe for developing countries dependent on livestock production. Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa and the second-largest human population on the continent. Ethiopia is one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa; however, much of the population still lives in extreme poverty, and most households depend on agriculture. Animal disease negatively affects domestic livestock production and limits growth potential across the domestic agricultural supply chain. This research investigates the economic effects of livestock disease burden in Ethiopia by employing a computable general equilibrium model in tandem with animal health loss estimates from a compartmental livestock population model. Two scenarios for disease burden are simulated to understand the effects of improved animal health on domestic production, prices, trade, gross domestic product (GDP), and economic welfare in Ethiopia. Results show that improved animal health may increase Ethiopian GDP by up to 3.6%, which improves national welfare by approximately $US 2.5 billion. This research illustrates the economic effects of improved livestock health, which is critical for Ethiopian households and the national economy.