Non-detection of emerging and re-emerging pathogens in wastewater surveillance to confirm absence of transmission risk: A case study of polio in New York
Infectious disease surveillance systems, including wastewater surveillance, can alert communities to the threat of emerging pathogens. We need methods to infer understanding of transmission dynamics from non-detection. We estimate a sensitivity of detection of poliovirus in wastewater to inform the sensitivity of wastewater surveillance for poliovirus using both a clinical epidemiology and fecal shedding approach. We then apply freedom from disease to estimate the sensitivity of the wastewater surveillance network. Estimated sensitivity to detect a single poliovirus infection was low, <11% at most wastewater treatment plants and <3% in most counties. However, the maximum threshold for the number of infections when polio is not detected in wastewater was much lower. Prospective wastewater surveillance can confirm the absence of a polio threat and be escalated in the case of poliovirus detection. These methods can be applied to any emerging or re-emerging pathogen, and improve understanding from wastewater surveillance.
Authors
- Maxwell L. Wilder (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5755-8414)
- Catherine Faruolo
- David A. Larsen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1876-6536)
- Hyatt Green (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6357-7657)
- Brittany Kmush (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2143-7554)
- Mohammed Alazawi
- Tabassum Z. Insaf (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4725-2515)
- Dustin Hill (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4073-6093)
- Christopher Dunham (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6244-0584)
- Brianna Hanson
- Milagros Neyra
- Dana Neigel
- Yifan Zhu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6754-3590)
- Nan Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3910-0140)
- Nicole Pulido (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8646-2710)
- Dana Chatila (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9660-7469)
- Brandon Ferro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1810-0052)
- Alejandro Godinez
- D R Lang
Institutions
- New York State Department of Health (US)
- State University of New York (US)
- SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry (US)
- Center for Environmental Health (US)
- York University (US)
- CDC Foundation (US)
- Syracuse University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- PLOS Global Public Health
- Published
- 2024-12-31
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0002381
- Citations
- 2
- Primary Topic
- Viral Infections and Immunology Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.80
Funders
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Foundation
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion