Hydrologic Perturbation Is a Key Driver of Tree Mortality in Bottomland Hardwood Wetland Forests of North Carolina, USA

Bottomland hardwood wetland forests along the Atlantic Coast of the United States have been changing over time; this change has been exceptionally apparent in the last two decades. Tree mortality is one of the most visually striking changes occurring in these coastal forests today. Using 2009–2019 tree mortality data from a bottomland hardwood forest monitored for long-term flux studies in North Carolina, we evaluated species composition and tree mortality trends and partitioned variance among hydrologic (e.g., sea level rise (SLR), groundwater table depth), biological (leaf area index (LAI)), and climatic (solar radiation and air temperature) variables affecting tree mortality. Results showed that the tree mortality rate rose from 1.64% in 2009 to 45.82% over 10 years. Tree mortality was primarily explained by a structural equation model (SEM) with R2 estimates indicating the importance of hydrologic (R2 = 0.65), biological (R2 = 0.37), and climatic (R2 = 0.10) variables. Prolonged inundation, SLR, and other stressors drove the early stages of ‘ghost forest’ formation in a formerly healthy forested wetland relatively far inland from the nearest coastline. This study contributes to a growing understanding of widespread coastal ecosystem transition as the continental margin adjusts to rising sea levels, which needs to be accounted for in ecosystem modeling frameworks.