Research on Carbon Quota Allocation Method for Power Plants Considering Power Grid Operation Risks

Under the carbon market trading system, the carbon quota system is a primary means of controlling CO2 emissions from power generation units. Currently, the interaction between power plants and the power grid is not adequately considered in carbon quota allocation. To address this, the paper proposes a carbon quota allocation method that takes into account the dynamic carbon emission changes and risks in regional power grids. The objective is to quantitatively analyze the impact of random disturbances on the carbon emission intensity of power generation units. First, the concept of a carbon emission correction factor for power generation units is defined, and its expression is derived. Then, a dynamic carbon emission factor calculation model is proposed, which reflects the spatial and temporal variations in carbon emissions within regional power grids. Finally, a carbon quota allocation model that accounts for the risks of dynamic changes in carbon emissions is developed based on the sequential Monte Carlo method. The results from the MRTS79 case study demonstrate that the proposed method effectively achieves the quantitative calculation and analysis of expected carbon emission changes under different operating conditions for power generation units, thereby verifying the validity of the model.