Risk Prediction and Assessment of High Voltage Transmission Lines under Typhoon Conditions

Typhoon disasters frequently occur in East and Southeast Asia, posing a high risk of causing large-scale power outages in the power system. To investigate the impact of typhoon disasters on the high-voltage power grid, a risk assessment method combining model-driven and data-driven is proposed, which can predict the fault of power grid in advance and provide support for power grid operators to generate emergency dispatching plans. At the level of model-driven, the failure model of power equipment under typhoon disasters is established, with particular emphasis on the mechanisms of how typhoon wind speed affects transmission tower line system. At the level of data-driven, the collected meteorological data, power grid data and geographic information data are input into the SMOTE -LightGBM algorithm after data preprocessing and data augmentation, and then the probability of power grid failure can be predicted, preventing cascading power failures. Finally, the simulation uses the actual power system of a province of China and the data of typhoon ‘Doksuri’ to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, which can serve as a valuable reference for emergency warning, disaster prevention and mitigation in Asia.